Market analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Entering Q4 2025, these essential charts offer critical insights for cryptocurrency traders navigating dynamic market conditions.
Bullish Seasonal Patterns
Historical data indicates a bullish Q4 outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the leading cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has generated an average return of 85% in Q4, making it historically the strongest quarter for bullish momentum according to Coinglass data.
November emerges as the most profitable month with 46% average gains, followed by October's typical 21% increase.
Ether also demonstrates strength in year-end months, though its peak historical returns have occurred in Q1 since launch.
Bitcoin's Critical 50-Week SMA Support
BTC price declined 5% this week, aligning with bearish technical indicators, potentially testing August lows near $107,300. Failure to hold this level could shift focus to the 200-day SMA at $104,200.
Current price action combined with Bitcoin's historical pattern of peaking 16-18 months post-halving may concern bulls.
However, maintaining prices above the 50-week SMA ($98,900) remains crucial, as this level has consistently supported corrective pullbacks during the bull market starting in 2023.
Traders should monitor the 50-week SMA as a key determinant for broader market direction.
XRP/BTC Consolidation Breakout Potential
XRP has surged 32% year-to-date but remains trapped in a multi-year sideways trend against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC).
The pair has consolidated within a narrow range since early 2021, creating prolonged low-volatility compression.
Recent price action near the upper channel boundary suggests growing bullish momentum. A breakout from this extended consolidation could trigger significant XRP outperformance against BTC.
SMST ETF Bullish Signals
The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), which inversely tracks MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-heavy stock, shows bullish technical formation.
Reaching five-month highs at $35.65, the ETF displays an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, typically indicating potential bullish reversal.
This pattern suggests bearish implications for both BTC and MicroStrategy, the largest corporate BTC holder with 639,835 bitcoin.
US Dollar Index Double Bottom Formation
The Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates resilience post-Fed rate cuts, potentially challenging risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Establishing a double bottom around 96.30 indicates bullish momentum, with breakout confirmation above 100.26 targeting 104.00 levels.
Pattern failure below 96.00 could stimulate increased risk appetite across financial markets.
Nvidia (NVDA) Topping Signals
Nvidia, the world's largest company by market cap and risk asset indicator, tests the upper boundary of a broadening channel.
Stalled momentum at upper trendlines since late July suggests bullish exhaustion. Downward movement could signal risk-off sentiment spreading to cryptocurrency markets.