Galaxy Digital Research Head on Bitcoin's 2026 Price Outlook: Key Factors Driving Uncertainty

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has provided a detailed analysis of the factors contributing to the significant uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's price trajectory in 2026. The key focus is the anticipated reduction in Bitcoin's block subsidy, commonly referred to as the "halving," scheduled for 2024. Thorn explains that while the 2024 halving's supply shock is largely priced in by the market, its full macroeconomic effects and impact on miner economics will take 12-18 months to fully materialize, placing the culmination of this cycle around 2026. This creates a complex landscape where post-halving supply dynamics, evolving institutional demand, potential regulatory developments, and broader global economic conditions converge, making precise predictions exceptionally challenging. The analysis suggests that 2026 will be a critical inflection point where the long-term sustainability of new price levels will be tested.