Crypto Market Analysis: Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails Before Key U.S. PCE Inflation Data

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Bearish

Crypto Market Analysis: Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails Before Key U.S. PCE Inflation Data

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant selling pressure, with the CoinDesk 20 Index dropping 5% within 24 hours and all constituent tokens trading lower.

Major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continue to see capital outflows from futures markets, while investors show persistent demand for protective put options on Deribit exchange.

Market participants are closely monitoring Friday's U.S. core PCE release, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, for indications of tariff-driven price pressures. Higher-than-expected inflation data could trigger increased volatility across financial markets.

Blockchain Development Update

By Francisco Rodrigues

  • Plasma, a new blockchain specifically designed for stablecoin operations, launched its mainnet beta and native XPL token on Thursday, achieving a fully diluted valuation exceeding $12 billion.
  • The layer-1 network, supported by Bitfinex, Bybit, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino and investor Peter Thiel, entered circulation with over $2 billion in XPL tokens.
  • Optimized for high-speed, low-cost stablecoin transactions, Plasma aims to power next-generation DeFi applications. Initial liquidity was deployed across major platforms including Aave, Ethereum, Euler and Fluid.
  • Plasma One, described as a "stablecoin-native neobank," represents one of the platform's flagship applications.
  • Regulatory restrictions require tokens sold to U.S. investors to remain locked until mid-2026, potentially reducing early trading liquidity.

Derivatives Market Analysis

By Omkar Godbole

  • BTC and ETH continue to experience futures market capital outflows, resulting in declining notional open interest.
  • Market consolidation is expected to eliminate overleveraged positions in the near term.
  • Recent hours show continued OI decline for BTC and ETH, raising concerns about price recovery sustainability.
  • Smaller cryptocurrencies like KAS and KCS recorded moderate OI increases over the past 24 hours.
  • Aster DEX perpetuals volume surged to $46 billion, significantly exceeding Hyperliquid's $17 billion.
  • CME BTC futures OI nearly reversed September's spike from 134K to 149K BTC, indicating renewed outflows.
  • ETH derivatives positioning remains elevated on Deribit with 7% annualized three-month basis, below SOL's 15% yield.
  • Deribit data shows bearish bias in BTC and ETH options through December expiry, while SOL and XRP exhibit bullish pricing for year-end.
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