Arca's Chief Investment Officer presents a compelling analysis challenging the notion of a broad crypto bull market in 2025, revealing that only select large-cap tokens are driving industry performance.
In a detailed X thread, Jeff Dorman disclosed that "over 75% of tracked tokens show negative year-to-date returns, with more than 50% declining by 40% or greater YTD."
The investment expert noted that few gainers include "speculative memecoins lacking serious investor consideration," specifically mentioning Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
Meanwhile, major cryptocurrencies demonstrated stronger performance. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Binance Coin (BNB) and XRP all gained between 20-40% year-to-date according to Dorman's analysis.
He compared this dynamic to traditional finance where large caps rally while smaller stocks decline: "This mirrors TradFi scenarios where DJIA and GameStop perform well while small caps drop 40%."
Dorman argued this selective performance creates healthier market conditions. Broad rallies breed complacency, while uneven performance encourages investor discernment. "Nothing valuable emerges from universal rallies where learning ceases," he observed, adding that underperforming projects prompt crucial questions about sustainability.
The current cycle demands more sophisticated investment approaches than previous altcoin momentum plays. Dorman emphasized prioritizing projects with verifiable business models: "Invest in tokens that generate actual revenue and implement token buybacks. The era of random speculative gains has ended."
Crypto's 'FAANG' Equivalents
Dorman identified several categories of resilient tokens and companies in 2025:
ETF-connected assets including BTC, ETH and SOL lead market performance
Crypto equities showing strength include Circle, Galaxy Digital, Coinbase and mining companies like Iris Energy and TeraWulf
So-called "U.S. government coins" including XRP and Chainlink's LINK token
Revenue-distributing tokens like Hyperliquid's HYPE, Pump.fun's PUMP, and Maple Finance's MPL/SKY
Dorman previously proposed a "BACHELORS" crypto equivalent to FAANG stocks, recently updating this to "BARHEAPs" to include emerging projects like PUMP.
The overarching lesson from 2025's market activity demonstrates that crypto's growth narrative proves more complex than surface-level gains suggest. Dorman concludes that labeling this a "bull market" misrepresents reality, as performance remains concentrated among major assets and selective revenue-focused projects.
"This challenging market environment barely qualifies as a good crypto year, much less a genuine bull market," he summarized.