Bitcoin (BTC) concluded its third-worst week of the year with a significant 5% decline, underperforming traditional assets like equities and metals in Q3. While the quarter ended with a modest 1% gain, key technical levels are now in focus for determining BTC's next price move.
The recent $17 billion options expiration with a max pain price of $110,000 created downward pressure on spot prices. Technical analysis highlights the short-term holder cost basis at $110,775 as a critical support level that has historically acted as a magnet for BTC prices during bull markets.
Market analyst Caleb Franzen notes Bitcoin has fallen below its 100-day EMA, with the 200-day EMA at $106,186 representing the next major support. Maintaining prices above the September low of $107,252 is crucial for preserving the broader bullish trend structure.
Despite strong macroeconomic data including 3.8% GDP growth and declining jobless claims, Bitcoin remains an outlier trading 10% below its all-time high while silver approaches record levels and U.S. equities hover near peaks.
Bitcoin-exposed equities like MicroStrategy (MSTR) face continued challenges with mNAV compression dropping to 1.44. MSTR's underperformance relative to Bitcoin ETFs highlights decreasing volatility appeal, with BTC's implied volatility falling below 40 - the lowest level in years.
Metaplanet, holding 25,555 BTC, sees its mNAV plummet to 1.12 from June's 8.44 despite having $500 million remaining for additional Bitcoin acquisitions, reflecting broader sector headwinds.