Bitcoin STH Cycles Mark Local Price Tops But Current Trend Shows Divergence

Short-term Bitcoin holders have accumulated approximately 450,000 BTC since July 2024, bringing their total holdings to 2.6 million BTC according to Glassnode analytics. STHs represent investors who acquired Bitcoin within the previous 155 days. This accumulation represents the third distinct cycle of increasing STH activity in 2024-2025, a pattern that has historically signaled local price peaks in Bitcoin markets. The initial peak occurred in April 2024 following Bitcoin's March record high of $73,000. The second peak emerged in January 2025 coinciding with the $110,000 all-time high, while the current third peak has developed after Bitcoin reached $126,000. Each successive cycle has featured smaller STH participation, indicating diminishing market euphoria and reduced speculative trading behavior. Glassnode data reveals STH supply as percentage of total circulating supply has progressively declined from 22% to 20%, and currently stands at approximately 18%. During Q1 2025, STHs held peak amounts of 2.8 million BTC before their supply decreased to 2.1 million BTC as Bitcoin corrected to $76,000, confirming STHs contributed significantly to April's selling pressure. Conversely, long-term holders began reducing positions during summer months, distributing about 250,000 BTC since July during Bitcoin's consolidation phase, with current LTH holdings at 14.5 million BTC. As Bitcoin enters its historically strongest quarterly period, market analysts project STH supply will continue expanding toward new cycle highs exceeding 3 million BTC.