Bitcoin demand has been steadily accelerating since July, potentially setting up another year-end rally toward $200,000. According to CryptoQuant data, apparent demand is growing at approximately 62,000 BTC monthly - a pattern reminiscent of Q4 2020, 2021, and 2024 when prices experienced significant upward movements.
Historical data shows sustained demand growth typically precedes major price rallies. This expansion is primarily driven by whale accumulation and ETF investments, with large holders increasing balances at an annualized rate of 331,000 BTC. This exceeds the 255,000 BTC recorded in Q4 2024 and substantially outperforms the 197,000 BTC contraction during 2021's weaker market.
ETF activity adds further momentum, with products acquiring 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024 - a 71% holdings increase - suggesting potential continued allocation growth through year-end. For this demand to trigger another breakout, price momentum remains crucial. On-chain analysis identifies the key threshold at Trader's Realized Price of $116,000.
A decisive break above this level would signal transition into the "BULL" phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, potentially opening a valuation range of $160,000-$200,000 for Q4. This indicator compares Bitcoin's market price against realized price metrics representing different investor groups' average cost basis.
Current market conditions entering October show remarkable similarity to 2024 patterns. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has maintained 40-50 levels, historically indicating the edge of bullish conditions. In 2024, the index surpassed 50 at Q4's start, preceding Bitcoin's surge from $70,000 to $100,000.
With strengthening demand metrics, traders are closely monitoring whether this pattern will repeat in coming months.