Historical data reveals that Week 38 of the year ranks as the third worst performing period for Bitcoin (BTC), with an average return of -2.25%. Only Week 28 (-2.78%) and Week 14 (-3.91%) have shown weaker historical performance, according to Coinglass.
Currently, the Bitcoin price has declined nearly 2% this week, trading around $113,000. Analysts from Deribit indicate that September's monthly options expiry suggests a max pain level at $110,000, potentially signaling further downside risk for BTC.
The term "max pain" refers to the strike price where the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless, creating maximum losses for options buyers.
Market sentiment appears to be cooling as Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have dropped to 4%, among the lowest levels observed in the past month. These rates measure the cost of maintaining leveraged positions in perpetual futures contracts.
Low positive funding rates typically indicate reduced demand for leveraged long positions, often suggesting that speculative market activity has diminished.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV), which gauges expected future price fluctuations, remains near historic lows at 37.
Despite the weekly decline, Bitcoin maintains a 4% gain for September and a 6% increase for the quarter. With approximately 14 weeks remaining in the year—most historically positive for BTC—this period may represent calm before potential increased volatility.
In contrast, gold continues its strong rally, gaining another 1% on Tuesday and showing over 42% year-to-date growth, potentially diverting attention from Bitcoin.
Additional pressure on Bitcoin sentiment comes from significant gains in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks like IREN, which may be temporarily overshadowing BTC's performance.