Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Metrics Signal Early Bull Market Phase With Strong Upside Potential

Many investors are currently analyzing bitcoin through an end-of-cycle perspective, suggesting Q4 might conclude the current market cycle. However, critical on-chain metrics indicate the bull market could actually be in its initial stages. According to Glassnode analytics, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) - which smooths bitcoin's price over extended periods and has historically maintained an upward trajectory - has recently surpassed $53,000. Simultaneously, the realized price (the average price at which all circulating bitcoin last moved on-chain) has climbed above the 200-WMA, reaching $54,000. Historical cycle analysis reveals a consistent pattern: during bull markets, the realized price typically remains above the 200-WMA, while bear markets show the opposite relationship. The 2017 and 2021 bull markets demonstrated this pattern clearly, with the realized price consistently climbing and widening its gap above the 200-WMA before eventually collapsing below it and signaling bear market beginnings. Although the 2022 downturn saw the realized price drop below the 200-WMA, it has only recently recovered above this critical level. Historical data shows that once the realized price sustains above this long-term moving average, bitcoin typically experiences continued upward momentum as the bull market advances.