Daily market analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
The classic market wisdom "once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern" perfectly describes Bitcoin's current technical situation. Friday's significant BTC price decline represents the third instance where bullish traders failed to sustain momentum above the crucial resistance trendline connecting 2017 and 2021 peak prices, potentially signaling a deeper correction toward $100,000 support levels.
This repeated rejection at the trendline resistance establishes it as a critical technical barrier that may define the current cycle's bullish limitations. Previous analysis by CoinDesk had already identified this pattern, noting two prior unsuccessful attempts to maintain positions above this level.
The extended upper wicks visible on July, August, and October monthly candles clearly demonstrate buyer exhaustion above the trendline resistance.
Concurrently, the monthly chart's MACD histogram, while remaining in positive territory, shows weaker readings compared to the December-January rally period when BTC initially surpassed $100,000, indicating diminishing upward momentum. The MACD indicator, based on moving average convergence divergence, is widely utilized by traders to identify potential trend reversals and measure trend strength.
The daily timeframe analysis further reinforces the bearish technical perspective.
The pronounced rejection from expanding channel resistance, coupled with bearish signals from both standard (12, 26, 9) and longer-term (50, 100, 9) MACD histogram configurations, suggests downward pressure represents the path of least resistance.
The extended MACD histogram configuration, employing 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages with 9-day signal smoothing, provides reduced sensitivity but superior noise filtration compared to standard settings.
Collectively, monthly and daily chart analysis indicates potential for BTC price movement toward sub-$100,000 levels, testing the expanding triangle's lower boundary. The 200-day simple moving average at approximately $107,000 may provide intermediate support during any decline.
Bullish scenario invalidation would require a decisive break above $121,800 resistance to disrupt the pattern of lower highs and neutralize the current bearish technical outlook. According to latest CoinDesk pricing data, BTC currently trades at $114,800.