Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead as Bull Run Continues

Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to face a bear market in the coming months as supportive monetary conditions are expected to prevail, effectively making the traditional four-year halving cycle obsolete, according to Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of Maelstrom. In his essay "Long Live the King!" published Thursday, Hayes argued that previous bitcoin bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were primarily driven by monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. Each time, bitcoin's price dropped 70% to 80% from its bull market peak. CoinDesk previously noted in 2023 that BTC's four-year bull-bear cycle centered around mining reward halvings is actually linked to fiat money supply and liquidity fluctuations, rather than halving events alone. Hayes explained that as the four-year anniversary of this cycle approaches, traders might apply historical patterns to predict an end to the bull run, but he asserts the four-year cycle is dead and the coming fiat liquidity surge will sustain the bull market. The halving refers to the programmed reduction in per-block BTC emissions every four years. Since 2009, BTC has generally followed a roughly four-year cycle, with a bull run around the quadrennial reward halving followed by a bear market starting 16-18 months post-halving. The most recent halving was in April 2024, leading some to worry about an impending peak and potential year-long bear market. However, this time is different because monetary conditions are expected to remain accommodative, with money supply growth likely accelerating rather than contracting. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve are already easing, and Japan may join under its new PM, a proponent of Abenomics. Hayes highlighted that President Trump aims to run the economy hot to reduce debt and lower housing costs to unlock trillions in home equity. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to around 4% in September 2025 and is expected to cut up to 100 basis points more in the next year, signaling a accommodative stance. Although China may not stimulate as much as before, its focus on ending deflation suggests it won't drain fiat liquidity, supporting BTC price gains. Hayes concluded, "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future."